Forex Analyst Picks & Strategies
June 30, 2015
My Picks: Short GBPJPY at 192.83
The British Pound turned lower against the Japanese Yen as expected, breaking support guiding the uptrend since mid-April. I have now entered short, initially targeting 190.91. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 194.33. I will take profit on half of the position and move the stop to the breakeven level (192.83) once the first objective is met.
Near-term support is at 190.91, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 187.85. Alternatively, a turn back above the 14.6% Fib at 192.80 opens the door for a challenge of 194.33 (range floor support-turned-resistance, trend line).
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June 25, 2015
My Picks: Long EURJPY
Currency Pair: EURJPY
Market Condition: Range
Target 1: Range Resistance 141.00
Target 2: 1x Range Extension 144.00
EURJPY 4Hour Chart
(Created using Marketscope 2.0 Charts)
The EURJPY has failed to breakout from key points of support and resistance in the last three weeks. This current market conditions can be seen as range bound until the next major breakout occurs. Currently support sits near 138.00 and has been tested in this morning’s trading. Resistance lies at 141.00 near the June 2015 high. In a bullish environment traders will look for price to bounce from range support and target range resistance. If price breaks above resistance, the next target will be a 1x extension of the range at 144.00.
In the event of a price decline and a breakout from support, the current range would be considered invalidated. A move to next figure support at 137.00 would confirm this opinion on the creation of a fresh lower low for the month of June.
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June 24, 2015
My Picks: Short USDJPY
Failure at long term uptrend resistance indicates potential for an important top to form in USDJPY. Favor the downside as long as price is below 126. A break below 119.50 would set the stage for a drop to the mid 114.00s.
USDJPY is pushing against the month open price (124.10) for the 3rd time in the last 3 weeks. A push above would not negate longer term topping implications but it would weaken the short term dowtrend. Weakness below 123.37 is needed in order to re-instill confidence in near term downside potential.
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June 23, 2015
My Picks: Pending: EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDJPY
Looking across the Dollar, Euro and Yen majors; there are plenty of pairs that look well positioned from a technical perspective. Yet, once again the fundamentals may act as a barrier for follow through. With uncertainty or the focus pushed forward, expectations could pump the break on what looks like otherwise clean technical setups.
For the Euro setups, there are good looking setups; but resolution on Greece - for better or worse - is necessary. EURUSD in particular is in a diminishing wedge below 1.1500, but needs a decisive outcome from the debt standoff to have a fighting chance for follow through. A clear fundamental outcome would be good for either direction, but I prefer a scenario where the deal falls through and it clear 1.1250. The same is true of EURJPY, which could easily clear 138 congestion floor if a Greek crisis proved contagious.
For a Euro long view scenario, one of the better positioned pairs is EURCAD which puts a listless Canadian Dollar against a theoretically motivated counterpart. Clearing a 16-month channel resistance around 1.40 would be the key technical move, but fundamentals are crucial here.
For the Yen crosses, a clear risk view is necessary and we are as lacking of conviction there as anywhere else. A USDJPY move towards 125 on a clear risk appetite drive could be an opportunity but it has a narrow window and dubious support. I'd prefer seeing risk aversion pull down equities and the Yen crosses. USDJPY below 122.50, 121.50 and then 120 are the key stages. I am also partial to NZDJPY given it broke a major neckline on a six-year rise and head-and-shoulder pattern. A staging from a retest at 85.50 or projection below 84 may prove viable levels to work with.
From the Dollar crosses, focus on rate forecasts is still strong but the wait-and-see mentality is not as magnetized to the future as it was last week leading into the FOMC decision. That may ease trend development on pairs that aren't 'distracted' by upcoming event risk. I'm watching GBPUSD as it turns from its 50% Fib of the July 2014 to April 2015 bear phase around 1.5900. Without something to hold it back, perhaps this pair finds follow through more readily.
June 22, 2015
My Picks: Short AUDUSD
Bottom Line: Sell Bias
Stop Above 0.7850
Target 1: 0.7598 July Low
Target 2: 0.7450 Weekly S1 Pivot Support
Target 3 (Extreme) 0.7260 Weekly S2 Pivot Support
Chinese data dissapointments continues to present risk to Australia’s economy and prolong the AUDUSD downtrend.
55-dma also acts as resistance as does the weekly pivot point.
Sentiment shows retail crowd favors longs. The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 2.19 as 69% of traders are long. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue lower.
(Screen capture from DailyFXPlus.com)
Daily RSI biased down showing selling pressure. A continuation below 60 on the 5-day RSI would favor downtrend continuation.
Daily Ichimoku Cloud recently provided resistance. The cloud has been steady resistance, only breaking a few times within the last years of a downtrend from 0.9501.
(Created using Marketscope 2.0 charts)
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June 22, 2015
My Picks: Long EUR/GBP
First of all, the March low to May high was an equal wave pattern where the (c) leg is equal in length to the (a) leg. Typically, that speaks to being corrective, but not in all scenarios.
The move from May 27 to June 9 is clearly a 5 wave move. In Elliott Wave Theory, that suggests the near term trend is pointed higher. The subsequent counter trend drop was a partial retracement of only 78.6% to .7126.
Therefore, the higher probability trade is for another 5 wave move higher that tests .74.
See notes in the chart below.
Click on the chart to see the market in motion since the pick was made.
Created using TradingView charts.
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June 22, 2015
My Picks: Pending EUR/USD short/long
The FX markets remain tricky as USD is lacking clear direction. EUR/USD has proven especially choppy as the pair struggles to gain a foothold above 1.1400. Our analysis of the cycles suggests the next couple of days should prove important and some directional clarity should emerge. Last week’s high looks key on the upside with traction above there (multi-hour close) needed to signal that a new leg higher is developing. On the downside, a median line channel connecting the April/May lows comes into play around 1.1230 and looks to be the key pivot for the rate on the downside. Weakness below there would be enough to signal that a top of some significance is in place in EUR/USD.
Square USDOLLAR short.
June 16, 2015
My Picks: Keep risks tight on Australian Dollar
The Australian Dollar continues to hold below key resistance at $0.7800, but overall bearish momentum on the US Dollar suggests the pair may ultimately move above. We'll keep risks tight on our short position.
Indeed the US Dollar hangs on by a thread to key support levels across the board. The danger of a larger breakdown has grown, and we'll keep an especially close eye on the highly-anticipated US Federal Open Market Committee rate decision for next cues on direction.
See and comment on our original trade idea from last week via our charts.
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